Market Outlook: RBI MPC, CPI, tariffs and global economic data key triggers for next week

Mumbai:  The equity market outlook for the next week will be guided by several domestic and international factors, such as RBI MPC, India’s CPI (March), industrial production data, any update on US reciprocal tariff and other global economic data.

On the domestic level, the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (RBI MPC) decision announcement is scheduled for release on April 9, which will provide key insights into the Reserve Bank’s policy stance and India’s economic outlook.

Further, India’s CPI (March) data and Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data will be released on April 11.

On the global level, the minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, US CPI data and UK GDP data are scheduled for release in the next week.

Indian benchmark indices ended the week sharply lower, snapping a two-week winning streak, as escalating global trade tensions rattled investor sentiment. The Sensex was down 2.65 per cent at 75,364.69, and the Nifty was down 2.61 per cent at 22,904.45.

On the sectoral front, heavy selling was witnessed in IT and Metal stocks, which emerged as the worst performers, plunging 9.15 per cent and 7.46 per cent, respectively. FMCG was the only sector to post gains, rising a modest 0.45 per cent, indicating defensive buying amid market volatility.

The sell-off was primarily triggered by US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose steep reciprocal tariffs on key trading partners, including a 27 per cent levy on select Indian goods.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned aggressive sellers, pulling out approximately Rs 13,730 crore from the cash segment, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) provided some support with net inflows of around Rs 5,632 crore.

Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group, said, “Nifty 50 has slipped to a two-week low, weighed down by rising fears of a global trade war and recession, which have created a wave of negative sentiment.”

“Key support levels to watch are 22,300 and 22,000. On the upside, 22,800 now acts as a strong resistance. In this environment, Nifty becomes a sell-on-rise market, and traders are advised to remain cautious and avoid aggressive long positions until stability returns,” he added.

–IANS