E-retail market in India poised to reach $170-$190 billion in GMV by 2030

New Delhi:  Amid the rise in quick commerce, trend-first commerce and hyper-value commerce, India’s e-retail market is projected to reach $170-$190 billion in gross merchandise value (GMV) by 2030, a report showed on Thursday.

The report highlighted India’s emergence as the second-largest e-retail shopper base globally, with an annual shopper base of over 270 million in 2024.

India’s e-retail market is projected to scale 3 times by 2030 from the current $60 billion. The retail market, which was over $1 trillion in size in 2024, continues to be a critical channel even as the online channel grows, according to the report by Bain & Company and Flipkart.

By 2030, e-retail is projected to exceed 18 per cent growth with nearly one in 10 retail dollars spent online, fuelled by increased discretionary spending as India’s per capita GDP surpasses $3,500-$4,000 — a key inflection point observed in e-retail spending globally.

“The democratisation of the shopping landscape with widening access to national brands/ assortment in Tier-3+ cities and remote, underserved areas is a key driver of growth,” said Arpan Sheth, Partner, Bain & Company.

Categories with high purchase frequency, such as grocery, lifestyle, and general merchandise, are set to contribute around 70 per cent of the incremental growth of the e-retail market by 2030, with penetration levels expected to climb two to four times from current levels.

E-retail has expanded from tier 2 cities to 3 and even smaller destinations with 60 per cent of new customers since 2020 and 45 per cent of orders since 2023 from these areas.

The seller ecosystem is also diversifying, with 60 per cent sellers onboarded since 2021 hailing from tier 2 or smaller cities.

“India has emerged as the world’s second-largest e-retail market by shopper base, with over 270 million online shoppers driving a $60 billion industry,” said Vijay Iyer, Vice President and General Manager, Flipkart Ads.

–IANS