RBI MPC begins, likely to go for 25 bps rate cut on April 9, says SBI report

Mumbai: As the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) began its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting (from April 7-April 9) here, SBI Research on Monday said it expects a 25-basis point rate cut in the policy and cumulative rate cut over the cycle could be at least 100 basis points, with two successive rate cuts over February and April.

With an intervening gap in June, the second round of rate cuts could start from August, said the SBI report.

“During February 2025 to March 2026, we expect at least 100 bps cut in repo rate (25 bps already cut in February 2025 and another 75 bps rest of FY26), which will transmit exactly same to EBLR and 60 bps in MCLR,” the report mentioned.

The report further stated that based on the available estimates of natural rate the neutral nominal policy rates works out at 5.65 per cent.

“Factoring in the average inflation envisaged and the output gap consequent upon different GDP scenarios, a cumulative policy rate reduction of 75-100 bps is likely going forward,” it added.

The RBI MPC decision announcement is scheduled for release on April 9, which will provide key insights into the Reserve Bank’s policy stance and India’s economic outlook.

CPI inflation may come down to 3.8 per cent in Q4 FY25 and average to 4.6 per cent in FY25.

Average CPI inflation may come to 3.9-4.0 per cent in FY26 and core inflation should come around in the range of 4.2-4.3 per cent.

“Till September/October, headline inflation will be on downward trajectory but may increase thereafter. The US has imposed reciprocal tariff to many economies that is more than India’s. This will increase the fear of dumping into India by these countries resulting in lower inflation,” said the report.

Moreover, durable liquidity is likely to remain surplus in FY26, supported by several factors, like OMO purchase, RBI’s dividend transfer, BOP surplus of around USD 25-30 billion in FY26, the report mentioned.

—IANS