Potential upside of Nifty and Sensex indicates robust outlook in FY26: Report

Bengaluru: The benchmark index Nifty is expected to post a 8–10 per cent annualised return in the next fiscal (FY26) while Sensex is projected to give 8–12 per cent return, according to a new report.

The domestic-focused companies are well positioned to mitigate risks like US tariff hikes or commodity price inflation.

Large cap private banks are expected to see a credit growth of 14–16 per cent in FY26. The benchmark indices have gained around 7 per cent in FY25, according to the report by GoalFi, a smallcase manager.

The report anticipates a growth of 12–16 per cent from current levels by March 2026, translating to a potential range of 8–10 per cent annualised return over the next 12 months from March 25, 2025.

These estimates assume a 12–15 per cent corporate earnings growth rate and a forward PE multiple of 19–21x FY26 earnings. The projected upside for Sensex is 14–18 per cent, implying an 8–12 per cent annualised return over the same period.

According to Robin Arya, Founder and CEO, GoalFi, Nifty and Sensex’s potential upside indicates a robust outlook, driven by robust earnings growth.

A combination of global and local factors, return of FII flows will help post higher growth, he said.

Religious tourism is a big thing to watch out for. There are over 300 million domestic pilgrims annually (pre-COVID), this is expected to rise by 10–12 per cent.

Medical tourism segment is projected to grow at 18–20 per cent CAGR, reaching a $13–15 billion market by 2026.

Infrastructure investments (100 new airports by 2030, 8–10 per cent annual road expansion) enhance connectivity, thereby providing broader support, said the report.

The rural demand is expected to be up 5–7 per cent YoY and the urban spending will see a rise of 6–8 per cent.

The capex cycle will see a big rise with, private capex projected to rise 12–14 per cent YoY. The government infra spend is expected at Rs 11-12 lakh crore.

The report expects a 15–20 per cent revenue growth across hospitality, travel, and infra in the tourism sector.

—IANS