New Delhi: The science is clear: Emissions must fall by 45 per cent by the end of this decade compared to the 2010 levels to meet the goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Contrary to this, the UN Global Stocktake synthesis report — a Paris Agreement-mandated evaluation of the global response to the climate crisis every five years — finds that without urgent action, global temperatures will rise by 2.4-2.6 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
This reinforces the need for transformative commitments at the forthcoming two-week UN climate summit or COP28 hosted by the United Arab Emirates in Dubai.
To help fill the gap, nature can provide up to one-third of the emission reductions required by 2030, alongside ambitious decarbonisation plans.
Among the key issues that the COP28 Presidency can possibly claim this year could potentially be the operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund for climate change and tripling of global renewable targets by 2030.
However, experts believe, a lot of tussle is expected on who will pay for the Loss and Damage Fund.
On the need for bringing clean power to all by 2030, while the G20 nations have supported it in the Delhi Declaration, it cannot be taken for granted till the remaining 170 plus nations also buy into it.
Ambition is empty without the finance to support it. Finance solutions are coming from the global south, like the Bridgetown Agenda which identifies that the private sector has to be tapped for mitigation finance. Also, tripling of multilateral development banks (MDBs) is required to provide public finance for adaptation and new innovative ways are required to unlock finance for the Loss and Damage Fund.
Not to forget at this COP is the Global Stocktake, a formal collective moment for the world to reflect and take stock for ratcheting up ambition.
The new tussle is on methane. With the US and China coming to agreements, it will put methane in the new geopolitical ambit of Greenhouse gasses (GHGs), forcing nations to assess their methane emitting sectors and economy.
Looking internally at India’s own transition, it has not made enough attempts for finance, climate experts told IANS.
India can scale renewable energy, but will need finance for developing green energy corridors, grid infrastructure and critical minerals to meet its ambition.
Green hydrogen and energy efficiency as potential sectors to watch out for, though green hydrogen comes with caveats.
India is a late entrant to the exporters club and it is still a beginner in electrolyser manufacturing. Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Fellow, Council on Energy Environment and Water, told IANS the big difference in this particular COP is that this is a Global Stocktake COP.
“It is important to understand the motivation behind the Global Stocktake process, which is a formal point for the whole world to reflect and take stock for ratcheting up ambition, and I think that is the keyword. It is not just for taking stock, it is a formal process for reflection and ratcheting of ambition. “Of course, at every COP we have the UNEP’s Emission Gap reports so we know if progress is taking place or not. But it will be a formal thing at COP28 which is expected to happen every five years.”
On tripling of renewable energy (RE) targets, Chaturvedi said, “We might be taking the global target of tripling of renewables for granted because the G-20 declaration kind of adopted it. But it will only become a global goal if all 190 plus countries agree at COP28.
“This would be a great win, but we should never take these things for granted, because there are another 170 plus countries who have not really weighed in on this subject, and what we saw and what we have seen during the negotiation process is that in many, many countries the capabilities are so low that it’s not easy for them to understand the implications of any such thing for their country.”
“It is not so straightforward. We are expecting that tripling of RE will formally come into the COP text. I hope it does but some effort will need to happen for that also,” he said.
On India’s mitigation pathway, Alok Kumar, former Principal Secretary with the Union Ministry of Power, said, “The debate on coal phase-out and phase-down has been going on for many years. India has not been very aggressive on demanding climate finance at various platforms.
“There are some aspects to this. First, meeting energy demands is critical for a country like India. Then, we have to plan for 2030. These are all long-term projects. I agree that at the renewable energy level, we can do more. If we accelerate renewable energy, it is fine.
“Beyond a point there are some concerns like the technical issue of storage, our political system giving free electricity and that India’s reality is different.
“Third, we need finance to develop the green energy corridors. If the government is not sure about this, new coal mines will be set up automatically to meet the growing energy needs.
“Fourth, India should raise the affordability issue and supply chain of critical minerals at the international platform.
“Fifth, the technology is available but the point is, at what cost? So let us talk about finance. Therefore, India needs to talk about finance and critical minerals when we talk of accelerating RE. India is doing sufficient. Local manufacturing in RE projects is picking up. Our track record of transparent bidding and payment has worked.
“The issues will come on transmission lines, storage lines and for these, we need climate financing and not for setting up RE projects. We need more money to scale up the project.”
According to Kumar, green hydrogen is a futuristic ambition for India, which will scale up in the next decade. However, there are three issues for India as it wants to tap export markets and major competitors like Australia who have already moved ahead.
“India will have to depend on domestic demand for scalable returns. If we have domestic demand, India can become a leader in green hydrogen production.
“Lastly, when we look at electrolyser manufacturing, both material-wise and technology-wise, we are still a beginner in technology and we can’t build a green hydrogen ecosystem without having expertise in electrolysers,” Kumar said.
According to Chaturvedi, the new tussle would be methane as the US and China have already come out with their announcement.
“India has already said officially that the agricultural sector is out of our NDC (nationally determined contribution) or any emission pledge because it is such a complicated sector for us. In India, more than 60 per cent methane emissions are from the livestock sector, and then it is rice production.
“Both sectors are very complicated for us to deal with. It is hard for me to expect India to sign on the methane pledge. But if it happens in a big way, then one will be forced to look at many, many things and eventually three, four, five years down the line, one could see that this becomes a very big sticking point the way loss and damage has been till now. So a new channel has been opened at this COP,” Chaturvedi added.
By the end of COP28, negotiators hope countries must agree to shun fossil fuels — the root cause of climate change as impacts are felt everywhere, including in the Antarctica, and with a clear timeframe aligned to the 1.5 degrees Celsius warming limit.
(Vishal Gulati can be contacted at gulatiians@gmail.com)
–IANS