Will hardliner-reformist face-off in Iran’s Presidential poll draw disenchanted voters to poll booths?

New Delhi: With Iran set to hold snap polls on Friday to elect the successor to late President Ebrahim Raisi, the contest, shaping up as a three-way race between two hardliners and a conservative, will head into a run-off, as per various surveys. However, they vary on the final positions of the contenders.

A bigger concern is the turnout. Authorities hope for a heavier ‘legitimising’ turnout, given the unprecedented low percentage of voting in the 2021 elections and parliamentary polls earlier this year.

A day before the election, four of the six approved candidates – three four hardliners/conservatives, of various intensities, and a reformist – remain in the race.

The top three contenders are former chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, Majles Speaker and former Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf (both hardliners), and cardiac surgeon Masoud Pezeshkian, who served as a minister in the Khatami regime (reformist).

Like some previous instances, some hardline candidates dropped out to coalesce support behind one strong (hardline) candidate.

The first was Vice President and Foundation of Martyrs and Veteran Affairs head Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi on late Wednesday and then, Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani on Thursday.

However, both, whose support was in single digits, did not express a choice between Jalili or Qalibaf.

Cleric and former Minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi remains in the race.

The turnout will be key. In 2021 – when Raisi won – it was 48.8 per cent – the lowest ever so far since the 1979 revolution. It came down to around 41 per cent in the two-round Majles election in March and May this year. Part of the disenchantment of voters is over social and economic issues and the debarment of reformist candidates.

However, known reformists like Ali Larijani and Eshaq Jahangiri or mavericks like former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad were not allowed to contest this time too.

The predicted turnout, as per the surveys and analyses, depends on the orientation of the pollsters or analysts. Those by emigres, largely hostile to the present Iranian dispensation, claim a much lower turnout this time, but in-country groups, related to government institutions, are more sanguine, reporting a slight bump up.

However, they also do not predict any radical breakout.

It was perhaps for this that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Tuesday called for a “maximum” voter turnout in a message to the country’s “enemies”.

“The Islamic Republic has enemies. One thing that helps the Islamic Republic overcome its enemies is the elections. If a good turnout is seen in these elections, then it will make the Islamic Republic proud,” he said in his address at a religious function.

On the candidates, the Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA), affiliated with the government’s Academic Centre of Education, Research, and Culture, in a survey published on Wednesday last week, forecast a 50 per cent turnout with Jalili first, and Pezeshkian second – slightly ahead of Qalibaf.

However, an update on Monday had Pezeshkian leading over Jalili, albeit by a small margin, while Qalibaf stayed in third place.

In both, none of the leading candidates was even the 30 per cent mark, indicating a run-off.

Meta, a polling organisation in the Imam Sadeq University in Tehran, in its survey published last week, had also forecast just over 50 per cent turnout, with Pezeshkian ahead – but over Qalibaf, while Jalili was in third place.

An update this week had the same positioning but with lower percentages, and claimed that in a run-off, Qalibaf would beat Pezeshkian, and Jalili too in a run-off.

A survey by the “privately-run” Shenaakht, published mid-June, predicted well over 50 per cent turnout, and Qalibaf on top and both Pezeshkian and Jalili tied in second place – over 10 percentage points behind.

While for Jalili and Qalibaf, their closeness to Supreme Leader Khamenei and the IRGC background could weigh in their favour with their establishment and conservatives, Pezeshkian, whose presence seems geared at drawing reformist voters, may find the going tough, unless there is a massive turnout in his favour.

Despite endorsements by former Presidents Mohammad Khatami and Hasan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Javed Zarif, his ethnic background – being an Azeri – could also cloud his chances. And then, his recent statements supporting Iran’s return to the nuclear deal and wider outreach to the West drew veiled censure from the Supreme Leader, who was scornful of those believing that “everything good comes from the US”. The other two peg more hopes on the region and from BRICS and the SCO.

Pezeshkian also strayed from prevalent consensus by expressing support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.

But, no matter who wins, any radical change in domestic and foreign policies is unlikely since the President is only the second in command. Also, the Supreme Leader has to certify the winner first.

(Vikas Datta can be contacted at vikas.d@ians.in)

–IANS