IANS-CVoter National Mood Tracker: Majority Indians believe Rampur, Azamgarh bypoll results are trailer of 2024 LS elections

New Delhi:  The Election Commission declared the results of bye-elections for seven Assembly constituencies and three Lok Sabha seats on June 26.

Two of the three Lok Sabha seats included Rampur and Azamgarh in Uttar Pradesh, both considered to be strongholds of Samajwadi Party (SP). The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) wrested both the seats from the SP. In Rampur, BJP’s Ghanshyam Lodhi defeated SP candidate Mohd Asim Raja in a direct contest by a margin of 42,192 votes. Azamgarh witnessed a triangular fight between the BJP, SP and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). BJP candidate Dinesh Lal Yadav ‘Nirahua’ registered victory on the seat by a margin of 8,679 votes.

While Nirahua secured 3,12,768 votes, SP candidate Dharmendra Yadav garenered 3,04,089. Shah Alaim alias Guddu Jamali of BSP grabbed 2,66,210 votes. Defeat of the SP on these seats is being considered as a big jolt to the party.

Notably, Azamgarh and Rampur Lok Sabha seats were held by party stalwarts Akhilesh Yadav and Azam Khan respectively. Bypolls to these seats were necessitated after Akhilesh Yadav and Azam Khan resigned after being elected to Uttar Pradesh legislative Assembly earlier this year.

CVoter-IndiaTracker conducted a nationwide survey on behalf of IANS to know people’s views about the bye-election results in Rampur and Azamgarh. During the survey, a majority of the respondents opined that the bypoll results are a trailer of 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

According to the survey data, 65 per cent of the respondents believe that these results should be seen as indicators of what country is likely to witness during next general elections, scheduled to be held in 2024, however, 35 per cent of those who participated in the survey, did not agree with this sentiment.

Interestingly, during the survey, while a whopping 77 per cent of the NDA voters said that these results are a trailer for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, opinions of opposition supporters were divided on the issue. While 55 per cent of opposition voters said that the bypoll results in Rampur and Azamgarh suggest that the saffron party is unlikely to witness tough competition during 2024 Lok Sabha elections, 45 per cent of opposition voters did not share this sentiment.

The survey revealed differences in the opinions of different social groups on the issue. During the survey, while 77 per cent Upper Caste Hindus (UCH), 71 per cent Other Backward Classes (OBC), 67 per cent Scheduled Tribes (ST) asserted that the bypoll results are suggestive of the possible outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, 76 per cent Muslims expressed a completely different view and said that these results are no indicator of the possible outcome of next general elections in the country.

At the same time, views of Scheduled Caste (SC) voters were divided on the issue. While 55 per cent SC respondents said the bypoll results hint that BJP is expected to sweep 2024 general elections, 45 per cent did not share the sentiment.

–IANS