New Delhi: UK’s Labour is currently on course to win a landslide victory on the scale of 1997, according to dramatic new modelling that points to the Conservatives losing every red wall seat secured at the last election, the media reports said.
The Tories could also lose more than 20 constituencies in its southern blue wall strongholds and achieve a record-low number of seats, according to a constituency-by-constituency model seen by the Observer.
Deputy Prime Minister Oliver Dowden, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps and leadership contender Penny Mordaunt are among those facing for defeat.
Some 12 cabinet ministers face being unseated unless Rishi Sunak can close Labour’s poll lead, the Guardian reported.
According to the model’s central projection, which takes into account the new boundaries that the next election will be fought on, Labour would win 420 seats – equating to a landslide 190-seat majority. The Tories would take just 149 seats and the Lib Dems 23.
The results mirror the 1997 landslide, when Tony Blair’s party secured a majority of 179 with 418 seats. The new analysis also suggests that the cost of living and the state of the NHS continue to be the clear priorities for voters, the Guardian reported.
The huge study, commissioned by the 38 Degrees campaign group, has been carried out by the Survation polling company using a mega poll made up of more than 11,000 voters.
A modelling technique called multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) has then been applied to reach constituency-level findings. Pollsters using the method successfully detected the swings ahead of the 2017 election.
While a 190-seat Labour majority is its average estimate, the modelling — based on polling carried out shortly before the Tory conference last week — suggests Labour could have between 402 and 437 seats. The Tories could have between 132 and 169 seats. The results suggest a Labour majority between 154 and 224 seats, the Guardian reported.
–IANS
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